Supported by an uptick in farm, mining and manufacturing output, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is seen growing 9.2 per cent in the current financial year as against a contraction of 7.3 per cent in the previous fiscal, the first advance estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday showed.
This is a tad lower than the GDP projection given by the central bank in its December policy review. The Reserve Bank of India has projected 9.5 per cent growth for 2021-22, with the rider that this assumed that there’d be no resurgence of Covid-19 infections in India. It had projected 6.6 per cent growth in October-December and 6.0 per cent growth in January-March.
The rising cases of the new variants of the COVID-19 pandemic has made several economists lower their projections for GDP growth for this fiscal.
Real GDP had grown 8.4 per cent in the July-September quarter, following a growth of 20.1 per cent in the April-June quarter.
Among sectors, agriculture sector is seen growing at 3.9 per cent in FY22 as against 3.6 per cent growth in the previous year, while manufacturing sector is seen growing 12.5 per cent as against a 7.2 per cent contraction. Electricity generation is estimated to grow 8.5 per cent as against 1.9 per cent last year. While trade, hotels, and transport services are projected to post a growth of 11.9 per cent owing to a sharp contraction of 18.2 per cent in previous year, the GDP in absolute terms for this services segment is still estimated to be below pre-pandemic levels.
The first advance estimates of GDP, obtained by extrapolation of seven months’ data, are released early to help officers in the Finance Ministry and other departments in framing the broad contours of Union Budget 2022-23. The second advance estimates of GDP will be released on February 28.
The growth rate in terms of gross value added (GVA) — which is GDP minus net product taxes, and reflects growth in supply — is seen at 8.6 per cent in 2021-22 as against a contraction of 6.2 per cent in the previous year. GDP in nominal terms, which factors in inflation, is estimated at 17.6 per cent as against a contraction of 3.0 per cent in 2019-20.